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Prediction for CME (2025-07-25T18:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-07-25T18:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40239/-1
CME Note: Relatively fast, narrow CME seen to the southeast only in STEREO A COR2A starting around 2025-07-25T18:23Z and not seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or GOES19 CCOR-1, likely associated with a minor eruption northwest of Active Region 4154 near S09E25; the signature is seen a brightening loop with larger overarching dimming signature in SDO AIA 193, locally separating magnetic field lines in SDO AIA 171, 131, and 304, and in GOES SUVI 284, an omnidirectional, cone-shaped EUV wave emanating from the parent source. The CME is seen quickly in three frames of STEREO A COR2A before rapidly becoming more diffuse and immeasurable before exiting the coronagraph field of view. M2M simulation represents an lower confidence measurement with just one spacecraft's coronagraph images (STEREO A), using just three available frames and knowledge of the source location using EUV imagery. | Arrival signature: Signature at ACE at L1 characterized by a gradual increase in B-total from 5.00nT to 7.67nT, some minor rotation in B-field components, and a simultaneous increase in speed from about 370 km/s to 410 km/s. No notable reaction in solar wind density and temperature data.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-28T22:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-29T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (BepiColombo, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-07-26T01:05:30Z
## Message ID: 20250726-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A. 

Start time of the event: 2025-07-25T18:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~938 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 11 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -25/-9 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-07-25T18:23:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect BepiColombo (minor impact). The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2025-07-26T20:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-07-29T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-07-25T18:23:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250725_215000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250725_215000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250725_215000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250725_215000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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Lead Time: 69.88 hour(s)
Difference: -1.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-07-26T01:05Z

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